CDC MMWR Explores COVID-19 Modeling into Fall 2021

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) this week included an article modeling future COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by vaccination rates and nonpharmaceutical intervention (NPI) scenarios in the U.S. from April through September 2021. The MMWR article provides background on the recent increase in COVID-19 cases realized in March and early April in the U.S. which coincided with the spread of COVID-19 virus variants and the relaxation of NPIs, such as business and capacity restrictions.

The CDC determines, based on data from six models, that with high vaccination coverage and moderate NPI adherence, hospitalizations and deaths are likely to remain low nationally with a sharp decline in cases projected by July 2021. Notably, lower NPI adherence could lead to substantial increases in severe COVID-19 outcomes among U.S. populations, even with improved vaccination coverage. The CDC notes that high vaccination coverage and compliance with NPIs are essential in controlling COVID-19 and preventing surges in hospitalizations and deaths over the coming months.

The full CDC MMWR article is available here.